Is this a road to civil war in Iraq?

A Stanford academic who served as an advisor to the Coalition Provisional Authority in Iraq now has some interesting things to say about the current state of affairs in that country. In fact, Larry Diamond, coordinator of the Democracy Program at the Center for Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law, is not going back to Iraq.

"We just bungled this so badly," said Diamond, a 52-year-old senior fellow at Stanford University's Hoover Institution. "We just weren't honest with ourselves or with the American people about what was going to be needed to secure the country."
. . .
"I had one of those moments when you cut through all the bull," he said. "I was speaking to this women's group [in Iraq], and one woman got up and asked, 'If we do all these things, who's going to protect us?' " Diamond recalled. "That was the moment when I said to myself, 'Oh my God, some of these women are going to be assassinated because they are here listening to me.' It just struck me between the eyes."
. . .
His recommendations for rescuing the situation run counter to some of the policies that the Bush administration insists it will not alter. Diamond said that, in his view, the United States must more than double its current military force of about 135,000 and confront the violent Iraqi militias consistently, while offering political benefits to those who lay down their arms and accept democratic institutions.

Via The Volokh Conspiracy.

My warcon friends are still arguing that an initial outlay of American troops has secured freedom for a nation that has never had it before, even as the situation in Iraq is deteriorating. We took Iraq from the hands of a tyrant, in order to let it fall into the hands of glorified warlords (many of whom are of a far more similar mind to world terror than Saddam was). Can we say "destabilization"? I thought that's what the war on terror was supposed to prevent. Diamond is no fool; although this article paints his reaction to the situation in very emotional terms, no one is better qualified than he to model the conditions necessary for fledgling democracies to survive.

I would also like to direct your attention to the censored text of a CPA internal memo that is critical of the Authority's handling of Iraqi security.

Despite the progress evident in the streets of Baghdad, much of which happens despite us rather than because of us, Baghdadis have an uneasy sense that they are heading toward civil war. Sunnis, Shi’a, and Kurds professionals have say that they themselves, friends, and associates are buying weapons fearing for the future.
. . .
Bremer has encouraged re-centralization in Iraq because it is easier to control a Governing Council less than a kilometer away from the Palace rather than 18 different provincial councils who would otherwise have budgetary authority. The net affect, however, has been desperation to dominate Baghdad, and an absolutism borne of regional isolation.

| Posted by Wilson at 12:46 Central | TrackBack
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