Electoral energy

My opinion of the American presidential campaign has changed since Kerry selected Edwards as his running mate. Until recently I expected a Bush win. Since the addition of Senator Edwards to the opposition ticket, however, I am not so sure.

Despite the recent ferocity of opinion against the incumbent, and despite the narrowness of his original margin of victory, I remained confident for some time that the Republican contender would triumph on 2 November. This opinion was in part due to the obvious advantages held by an assertive sitting president after an attack on American soil. Although controversy surrounded our subsequent prophylactic war in Iraq, and although disappointments that came during Iraqi reconstruction weakened public support for Bush even more, I expected a Republican win. Most Americans originally favored the invasion of Iraq, after all; most still seemed to expect the discovery of WMD; and after 11 September it seemed comforting to have a president proven effective against alien powers, whoever they may be.

I began to have my doubts some time ago. I was never able to visualize a Democratic victory, however, until I saw Kerry and Edwards together on television. The awkwardness that had characterized the campaign seemed to have vanished. The ticket had a new energy. My opinion was reinforced by reports of the Bush campaign's immediate response to the choice, which in contrast to the Democrats' optimism seemed utterly petty and insulting.

Recently the public statements of President Bush have seemed more and more defensive. He uses patronizing language with alarming frequency; every tired truism he utters is presented as an expert revelation ("see, terrorists hate America"; "see, I plan to defend America against every threat"). His statements about Iraqi WMD now amount to little more than "well, we could have been right." This removes what was probably the most important obstacle to anticipation of a Kerry win. The Democratic candidate is no longer merely second-guessing the incumbent's wartime decisions, suggesting vague alternatives. With sovereignty now in the hands of Iraqis, Kerry may now position himself as the right man to prevent this sort of situation from happening again.

Do not think that I am predicting that Senator Kerry will win the election. I would not venture to make any definite prediction until after the national party conventions. I am merely saying that from my perspective, the Kerry campaign now has the certain je ne sais quoi that it lacked, a quality without which I could not visualize a Kerry victory.